Mobile To Swamp Fixed Broadband, Warn Analysts

Fixed broadband networks will continue to play an important role when it comes to Internet connectivity, but mobile alternatives will outpace fixed lines by more than 300 percent, according to new research.

In research published this week, Michael Philpott, principal analyst at Ovum, said that by the end of 2015 mobile broadband will outstrip fixed networks by more than three times. There will be approximately 3.2 billion mobile broadband subscriptions worldwide, compared to just 785 million fixed broadband subscriptions at the same point in time, the research stated.

“By the end of 2015 mobile broadband will swamp fixed broadband subscriptions by more than 300 percent. A startling statistic, but not one that should overly concern fixed broadband operators,” said Philpott.

Growing Mobile Networks

Despite the growth of mobile networks, Philpott said that fixed lines would continue to be an important part of Internet connectivity. “During the next five years the global fixed broadband market will continue to grow by a compound annual growth rate of seven percent. By 2015, on a worldwide basis, 36 percent of homes will have a fixed broadband subscription,” he said.

The biggest disruption from the growth of mobile networks will come in the developing world.  “Emerging markets are more susceptible to mobile broadband substitution,” he said. “However, on the whole this is not existing fixed broadband customers migrating to mobile broadband services, but people who have never had a fixed broadband connection moving straight to mobile broadband.”

Fixed-line Operators

But even despite the popularity of mobile networks in developing countries, these areas will also be important for fixed-line operators. “Regions such as South and Central America, Eastern Europe, and Middle East and Africa all have a greater CAGR [Compound Annual Growth Rate] over the next five years than developed markets, which have now largely reached saturation point,” he said.

In July, communications regulator Ofcom praised infrastructure providers for a 25 percent increase in the speed of the average actual fixed-line residential connection. The average connection was advertised to have a speed of up to 10Mbps in May 2010, compared to 8 percent in April 2009.

On the 15 July, Culture Secretary Jeremy Hunt announced that the government’s plan to roll out 2Mbps broadband to all British homes by 2012 has been delayed – till 2015. Hunt blamed the previous government for setting a target that could not be met with the resources available.