Microsoft’s XP Deadline Is A Green Timebomb

What is going to be the main motivation for people moving off Windows XP? Faster apps? Improved efficiency? Exciting functionality? No. Companies will abandon XP because Microsoft and its partners will stop supporting the platform by 2014.

That appears to be the conclusion from analyst Gartner at least, which released a research note this week urging companies to consider moving off XP in the next 12 months. True, Windows 7 has been getting some “positive reviews” the analyst concedes but the real issue is not embracing the wonders of Microsoft’s latest OS but jumping clear of the Windows XP boat before Microsoft sinks it.

“With Windows XP getting older and Windows 8 nowhere in sight, organisations need to be planning their migrations to Windows 7,” advises Michael Silver, vice president and distinguished analyst at Gartner.

Ancient Windows XP

Now, Gartner probably believes it is just being pragmatic with its latest missive. Windows XP is pretty ancient in software terms. The supposed PC refresh cycle for most enterprises was supposed to be three years but Windows XP has been hanging around since August 2001. If Gartner is accurate in its report that 80 percent of respondents skipped Vista and are still using XP then that means swathes of machines are running software conceived nearly a decade ago.

So it makes sense to abandon the clunky old platform and embrace the future which is Windows 7, right? Windows XP is dead, long live Windows 7. That would be true if this was still 2001 but a lot has changed in the last ten years. The rise of Linux, a resurgent Apple, and most importantly the era of cloud computing ushered in by Google. All these factors combined with some hairy economic conditions of late have conspired to make Windows XP a much more permanent fixture than anyone – least of all Microsoft – imagined.

There are other factors at play here. Not least the turkey that was Vista. But the failure of Microsoft’s last baby to take hold was as much to do with the environment it was born into as the functionality – or lack of it – of the operating system itself. Vista was clunky and annoying but if there had been a real impetus to adopt it then more businesses probably would have. The single biggest factor in Vista’s demise was probably the fact that Windows XP works so well. Actually, that should probably be clarified. Windows XP worked well enough and well enough is all most people want – certainly in the business world.

Criticism Over Mass Vista Refresh

Another factor at play when it comes to the Windows XP’s Terminator-like survival ability is the emergence of green thinking and concerns about climate change. Microsoft got a pretty good kicking from the green movement when it first mooted the idea of the mass PC refreshes accompanying the move to Vista. Gates and co were keen to point out that Vista had smarter energy efficiency and sleep modes than its predecessor. But opponents retorted that taking advantage of these new features would mean junking perfectly good hardware for something capable of running Vista.

This notion is particularly troubling from an environmental perspective as studies have shown that as much as 75 percent of the total carbon footprint of a PC is incurred during its manufacture in terms of material extraction and other factors. Microsoft and other tech companies are keen to refocus the green debate in purely energy efficiency terms but green groups claim the whole tech life cycle from mining to disposal is the real story. Experts also agree that sweating assets is a fundamental green IT strategy.

Many companies have updated their machines in the intervening years but a lot of them threw out the Vista installed on the new machines, in favour of a “downgrade” to XP.

And we have not seen the mass upgrades and hardware refreshes despite numerous predictions by analysts and vendors over the last six or seven years. Such a refresh ought to create a flood of obsolete PCs, but a contact who runs a charity that takes reconditioned PCs from UK organisations to the developing world says he has been waiting in vain for years for refresh to materialise.

As someone passionate about the environment, as well as the digital divide, he accepts that this is a mixed blessing. A more sensible approach to PC migration is ultimately a good thing even if it means a slower flow of machines for schools in Africa.

For the last decade, businesses have moved to a slow drip of replacement by attrition instead of a “forklift” wholesale refresh of machines. But if Gartner’s predictions are correct, then Microsoft is trying to force the hand of businesses to return to the bad-old days of mass migration. “Based on the typical PC refresh rate, many organisations will not be able to get Windows XP out by their target end date by moving to Windows 7 by attrition alone,” the analyst warns.

Waste For All The Wrong Reasons

Only by instigating a wholesale hardware refresh will companies be able to avoid Windows XP’s rapidly diminishing life-span. Microsoft has admitted that getting the most from Windows 7 means using the latest hardware which means 2010/11 will see tens of thousands of functioning PCs consigned to the waste stream. Many will be recycled or sent to worthwhile reconditioning schemes such as one run by my contact but the whole idea still smacks of waste created for all the wrong reasons. Dumping thousands of machines into the waste stream at the same time will stretch environmental disposal channels and could lead to more illegal disposal.

PCs have to be replaced eventually but it should be down to the owner to decide when the time has come to upgrade – not an arbitrary expiration date decided by the vendor. The operating system has been reduced to a bit player in the world of computing by the explosive growth of the web. Consumers and businesses are increasingly turning to the cloud for their functionality. For many people the OS is just something that provides a home for the browser. Having to junk an entire machine purely because Microsoft will no longer support its operating system feels as fair – and as green – as being forced to upgrade your car by a truculent tyre maker.

Obviously for some PC customerse, the OS still counts – as witness the resurgence of Apple and innovations such as the iPad. But these kind of rich user experiences have been largely ignored by businesses who are focused on reliability, security and ease of management. How the corporate world will choose to react to the ticking clock on Windows XP is unclear. If enough of its user base ignore the 2014 deadline Microsoft may be forced to extend it still further. This would allow more time for the natural attrition to proceed and for companies to maximise the ratio of carbon debt to productivity from their XP machines.

If on the other hand Microsoft enforces the 2014 deadline – as it probably will – being under the cosh might be the kick that businesses need to really consider their options. Google Chrome, and a whole wave of increasingly mature desktop Linux platforms may finally enjoy a level playing field when it comes to corporate uptake.

Roll on 2014.