Mac Share Goes Down – Again

Just a normal seasonal dip?

Looked at the way, Apple’s first quarter was seasonably equivalent during a tougher sales climate. How difficult? A year ago, US PC shipments rose 3 percent. Worldwide year-over-year growth was 12 percent in first quarter 2008, compared to a 6.5 percent decline this year.

Worldwide, PC manufacturers shipped 67.2 million units during first quarter. In the United States: 15.2 million shipped.

The second chart presents Gartner’s view of sequential change. Gartner presents unit shipments year-over-year. I’ve compiled them quarter-on-quarter, because they better trend shipments during tough economic times. Typically, fourth-quarter shipments are much higher than first quarter—Acer and Dell. HP and Toshiba show modest declines quarter-on-quarter, less than 3,000 units for Toshiba. Apple’s decline is consistent with 2007 fourth quarter to 2008 first quarter.

So Apple compared with Apple, the trend is surprisingly good considering the economy. Apple’s problem: Some Windows OEMs are doing lots better, in terms of inventory management and selling prices.

I see three major problems for Apple during first half of 2009:

• Mac desktops and laptops are overpriced for what most people are willing to spend.
• Microsoft marketing is paying off, helping to boost Windows PC sales, which, according to NPD, were up more than 15 percent in February; by comparison, Mac sales were down nearly 17 percent.
• Mini-notebooks will continue to sell well—I expect better than analysts predict—and that will hurt Mac laptop sales.

The first and third problems are related and squeeze Apple quite uncomfortably. Simply put: Netbooks, or what analysts call mini-notebooks, are selling well, and they’re driving down selling prices.