Android Device Shipments To Overtake Windows PCs By 2016

Android will be the leading platform for “smart connected devices” by 2016, overtaking Windows and iOS in units shipped, according to research by the International Data Corporation (IDC).

The IDC predicts that in 2016 shipments of smartphones, PCs and tablets will reach 1.84 billion. This will be more than double the 916 million shipped in 2011, which created $489 billion (£308bn) in revenue.

Mobile growth

“Whether it’s consumers looking for a phone that can tap into several robust ‘app’ ecosystems, businesses looking at deploying tablet devices into their environments, or educational institutions working to update their school’s computer labs, smart, connected, compute-capable devices are playing an increasingly important role in nearly every individual’s life,” said IDC’s vice-president of clients and displays, Bob O’Donnell.

By the end of last year, Android held 29.4 percent share of the “smart connected devices” market, which IDC puts down to the low pricing of its smartphones. This share will grow, albeit by a small margin, to 31.1 percent.

Meanwhile, Windows will lose its dominance due to the increasing adoption of tablets and smartphones on alternative operating systems. Devices running the OS on x86-compatible CPUs held 35.9 percent of market share in 2011, but estimates suggest a significant decline by 2016, retaining only 25.1 percent share.

Despite this predicted market lead for Android, the IDC says that profitability will be difficult to sustain on the platform due to the number of manufacturers relying on lower prices to compete with each other. Apple’s iOS, which can expect an increased share from 14.6 percent in 2011 to 17.3 percent in 2016, will remain the more profitable platform.

“We expect a large percentage of application developers to continue to focus their efforts on iOS, despite the platform’s smaller overall market share, because iOS end users have proven more willing to pay for high-quality apps,” said Tom Mainelli, IDC’s research director for mobile connected devices.

The IDC also predicts China will be a key factor in Windows’ decline over the coming four years.

“Smartphone growth will be driven by Asia/Pacific countries, especially China, where mobile operators are subsidising the purchase of 3G smartphones, thus increasing the total addressable market,” said Will Stofega, the IDC’s programme director for mobile phone technologies and trends.

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