ABI Research has predicted that Google’s Android operating system will rise to command 45 percent of smartphone market share worldwide by 2016.
But it take a very different position to IDC over Windows Phone 7
The market researcher, which said Android accounted for 69 million of the 302 million smartphones shipped in 2010, said the phasing out of Nokia’s Symbian OS over the next two years would leave a share vacuum.
This is owed less to falling Blackberry shipments and more to its relegation to niche status as an enterprise smartphone platform.
Interestingly, ABI also sees Samsung’s Bada platform as more primed to take some of the Symbian share than Microsoft’s Windows Phone 7, which has struggled in the early going with slow sales and misfiring updates, according to eWEEK’s Microsoft Watch blog.
ABI analyst Michael Morgan noted that with 4 million units shipped in 2010, Bada has taken off “very well, very fast,” and may reach 10 percent market share by 2016.
Conversely, Morgan said Windows Phone 7, which shipped 2 million handsets in last year’s fourth quarter, would have to “find incredible success through its Nokia channel to take more than 7 percent of the market by 2016.”
That’s quite a different story from IDC’s market forecast from 29 March.
Similar to ABI, IDC pegged Android at 45 percent share through 2015.
However, IDC said that Windows Phone 7, not Blackberry, iOS or Bada, would take 21 percent market share to fill the void left by Symbian.
That’s how strongly IDC believes in the Microsoft brand and the ensuing partnership to have Nokia build phones with WP7.
Overall, ABI said the smartphone market would see a huge upswing as lower-cost models land to help cost-conscious consumers replace their feature phones. ABI expects the market to grow at a 19 percent compound annual rate through 2016.
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how can someone predict something, markets are always changing, and comparting bada a operative system sold in devices that cost 60 euro. lol Great if samsung sells bada for 10 euros it will pass Android..wait android phones are also cheap now! lol
First never heard of ABI research. As for the quality of the research! Bada sold 4 million for the year, Windows Phone 7 sold 2 million in 2 months not full quarter, that will be around 10 million for the full year. Yet Bada will be 10% in a few years time and Windows phone 7%. With Nokia having Windows phone as their main system I expect these figures to go even higher for 2012. Even a primary school kid can figure out this research was done by some kindergarden analysts.